Al-Shabaab Accounts for Nearly Half of Al-Qaeda-Linked Violence Globally in 2026

GOOBJOOG NEWS | MOGADISHU: The Al-Shabaab has emerged as the most violent affiliate in the global Al-Qaeda network, with more than 2,300 political violence events involving the group recorded in 2026, according to a new analysis by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).

The figure accounts for nearly half of all political violence recorded globally this year involving Al-Qaeda-linked groups, highlighting the continued scale of the insurgency more than two decades after the September 11 attacks that reshaped the international fight against jihadist organisations.

ACLED describes Al-Shabaab as Somalia’s dominant non-state armed group and the most violent Al-Qaeda affiliate worldwide.

Lower Shabelle remains one of the principal centres of violence involving the group, with repeated clashes and attacks involving Somali security forces and Al-Shabaab. ACLED has previously identified the region as a major hotspot for political violence involving the group.

The latest assessment comes as Somalia continues efforts to take greater responsibility for national security following the drawdown of the previous African Union peacekeeping mission and the transition to a new African Union-led security arrangement.

ACLED warns that changes in international security support could create opportunities for Al-Shabaab to maintain or expand its influence if Somali forces are unable to sustain pressure on the group.

The assessment also points to the wider regional significance of the insurgency. Al-Shabaab’s activity is not confined to Somalia, with the group having carried out attacks in neighbouring Kenya and maintained the ability to threaten cross-border security.

The findings come amid continuing political and security pressures inside Somalia. Recent tensions between federal forces and opposition forces in South West State have added another layer of instability, with ACLED recording dozens of armed engagements in Bay region during 2026.

ACLED has also reported that Al-Shabaab has sought to strengthen its presence along important economic and logistical routes linking parts of southern Somalia, including areas around Middle Juba and Lower Shabelle.

The combination of persistent insurgent activity, political tensions and pressure on international security support presents a challenge for Somalia as it seeks to consolidate gains against Al-Shabaab and strengthen its own security institutions.

The ACLED assessment underscores the continuing importance of Somalia in the global fight against Al-Qaeda-linked militancy, while highlighting the difficulty of containing an insurgency that has retained significant operational capacity despite years of Somali and international military pressure.