Amisom’s exit a risk to Somalia’s nascent administration-US intel report

By Fauxile Kibet

The continuing draw-down of African Union forces will complicate President Mohamed Farmaajo’s ability to consolidate his government’s authority over the country, a US intelligence report has warned, also signaling political instability in the Horn and East Africa region in 2018.

The report, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community notes the phased exit of Amisom forces which started with 500 troops last December could provide room for the militant group Al-Shabaab to fast spread its tentacles in the country further plunging Somalia into more security risks.

“Somalia’s recently elected government probably will struggle to project its authority and implement security reforms amid the drawdown of African Union forces in 2018, while al-Shabaab probably will increase attacks,” the report reads in part.

Late last year, Amisom announced that it had initiated a series of troop movements, aimed at re-aligning contingent compositions in various forward bases across Somalia as it plans to hand over security duties to the Somalia National Army.

“The realignment of our troops in forward operating bases across the Sectors including the movement of Ethiopian military contingents who are currently seen crossing the border from and into Somalia, represents calculated activities, in readiness for the transitioning of security responsibilities to the Somali National Security Forces,” Amisom head Francisco Caetano Madeira told the media.

NOT READY

UN chief in Somalia Michael Keating told Goobjoog News last week Somali Security Forces were not yet ready to take over from Amisom but noted concerted efforts by all actors-Somali government, African Union and the UN will ultimately prepare the forces for a complete take-over in the future.

“Somali security forces are not yet ready to resume full responsibility for security,” said Keating, “But the government is working hard with the African Union and that’s very a important relationship as well as the with the international community to implement the National Security Architecture and to develop a plan for transitioning the security forces in Somalia so that there is a political understanding and practical capacity as to how Somalis will take full responsibility but we are not there yet.”

AMISOM has stated that it would carry out the troop pullout gradually in accordance with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2372(2017) that calls for a gradual, condition-based withdrawal of AMISOM troops from Somalia – following an intensive training and upscaling of Somalia’s National Security Forces.

REGIONAL STABILITY

National Intelligence director Daniel Coats who presented the report to the US congress this past week also noted the Kenyan opposition, which in the past weeks have intensified activities against President Uhuru Kenyatta government will continue to ‘seek redress of various grievances’.

“The Ethiopian and Kenyan Governments are likely to face opposition from publics agitating for redress of political grievances,” Coats said.

This comes even as President Kenyatta’s newly appointed ministers took oath of office Friday at State house Nairobi, amidst opposition’s claims that the current government was not legitimately elected.

The US warning also happens at a time when western envoys led by the United States and United Kingdom continue sustained pressure on the opposition led by Mr. Raila Odinga to recognize President Kenyatta’s government as legitimate.

“We are deeply concerned by recent political developments in Kenya. Both the government and the opposition have taken steps that have undermined Kenya’s institutions, and driven wedges among its citizen,” a statement released by the envoys read.

UNREST IN ETHIOPIA

The continuing political protests in Ethiopia which Thursday yielded the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn will continue to generate tension in Ethiopia, the report notes.

Desalegn suddenly quit office Thursday in what he termed as a bid to give way for reforms after years of unrest that threatened his future at the helm of one of Africa’s most populous country.

His resignation, which marked an historic event in Ethiopia was precipitated by months of unrest in towns close to the country’s capital – most of which were held to push for the release of opposition leaders.

Ethiopia’s troubles stems from continued disquiet among two largest groups the Oromo and Amharic – who claim that they have been sidelined in leadership.

EPRDF Council said Friday it had accepted the resignation of Desalegn as both President and chair of the party but noted until the Council and Parliament formally approve it.

Since the beginning of 2018, Ethiopia has released close to 6000 prisoners – in what has been seen as the government’s efforts to quell rising political tension. But the Prime Minister’s resignation could further expose the cracks within the ruling Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPDRF) and its sister parties- the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO) and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement.
Regional and western allies will be keen to follow events that will unfold in the country.

Coincidentally, both Kenya and Ethiopia play an instrumental role in the fight against Islamist militancy in Somalia and both have been criticized for crack-down on opposition and the media.

It will be interesting to see how the Western countries will handle the situation as it advocates for freedom of the media, democracy while maintaining good relations so as not to jeopardize its war on terror.