Brig. Gen. Rage’s Return: Leading the SNA During Major Transitions and Quest for a Military Win Against Al-Shabaab

By T. Roble

Brigadier General Odowaa Rage returns to the helm of the Somali National Army at a time of major security and political transitions in Somalia as the country faces yet another tough test of elections at federal and state levels.

The Cabinet approved his re-appointment on Sunday to replace Major General Ibrahim Muhyiddin who has been in office for barely one and half years. Muhyiddin was appointed the SNA chief in June 2023.

ATMIS-AUSSOM and Ethiopian Row

Rage will lead the military during a time of major transitions in the country. First, the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) will end its mandate by December and will be succeeded by the African Union Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) in January 2025, in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution 2748 (2024).

The Somali government has indicated that Ethiopia, which has been operating in sector three covering Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions will not be included in AUSSOM following bitter differences between the two countries since the January 2024 controversial MoU with Somaliland. In its place, Somalia intends to bring in the Egyptians. Both Egypt and Ethiopia are bitterly opposed over the filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Rage will be faced with the critical role of deciding, alongside the AU which force will replace Ethiopia in the three regions given the sensitive nature as they share a long border with Ethiopia. Addis Ababa has argued that its role in the three regions has been instrumental in fending off Al-Shabaab from crossing into its territory besides providing much-needed support to the South West government whose two regions-Bay and Bakool are still vastly controlled by Al-Shabaab. Also crucial for Rage will be managing the effects of ongoing geo-political tensions pitying Somalia, Ethiopia and Egypt all drawn in by different national interests and locked in acquaintanceships of convenience.

ATMIS, as a transitional mission was supposed to hand over responsibilities to the Somali Security Forces (SSF) at the end of its transitional mandate in 2024. However, it is now handing over to another African Union force demonstrating a lack of sufficient preparation and capacity on the part of SSF. For Rage, ending this transitional cycle will be crucial in justifying his return to Defence Headquarters.

Elections at FGS and FMS

Secondly, and equally important is the elections at federal and state levels. According to an agreement at the National Consultative Council late last month, local government elections are slated for June 2025 followed by Federal Member State parliamentary and presidential elections in August of the same year. Presidential elections at the national level will likely take place in May 2025 when the term of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud lapses.

However, these timelines, especially at the regional level might not be feasible. In Jubaland, President Ahmed Madobe formed an electoral committee on Saturday to oversee elections in the southerly state probably this month. The Federal Government has since dismissed the move noting it runs counter to the NCC deal. Of note also is that Puntland, which has serially skipped the NCC talks is, according to its constitution expected to elect a new president in January 2029.

Rage who leads an important component of the security apparatus of the country will be faced with a balancing act seeking to steer the country’s stability while maintaining neutrality. He will have learnt lessons from the April 2022 stand-off in Mogadishu when a section of his troops from the Middle Shabelle region deserted bases and pitched camp in Mogadishu to lend support to the opposition where the current president was a key figure.

UNSOM-UNTMIS Transition

Finally, the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) took over from the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) last week. According to the UN Security Council resolution 2753 (2024), UNTMIS is mandated to prepare over two years to transition into a UN Country Team. It will carry on with virtually all the UNSOM mandates including political processes, state building, and overseeing UN funding among other roles. Rage’s role here too is prominent as the UN has been working closely with the SSF, especially in funding and supporting the SNA through the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS).

Revamping War on Al-Shabaab

Besides these transitions, Brigadier General Rage faces the uphill task of re-invigorating the war against Al-Shabaab which in recent months has been lacklustre. When the campaign started in July 2022, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was upbeat that it would take two years to annihilate the militant group. He led the campaign in the central regions with plans to launch the second phase in 2023 focusing on the southern states-South West and Jubaland states.

Regional countries such as Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti under the Front-Line States framework had promised up to 20,000 troops on bilateral arrangements to support the SNA in Operation Black Lion when the second phase commenced. However, so much water has gone under the bridge since then.

It will take more courage, political will and international support to revamp these operations ahead of the anticipated universal elections from next year.