Coalition government a likely scenario as powerful Premier endorsed in new 2016 roadmap
Somalia could for the first time in its history be governed by a coalition government should a proposal exclusively seen by Goobjoog News which also seeks to retain the controversial 4.5 clan formula is accepted by all stakeholders.
The proposal contained in the document- Enhanced Legitimacy: Hybrid Option which provides the roadmap for the 2016 polls after the government dispensed with the ‘One person One Vote’ proposes a raft of measures and guidelines to ‘sustain the domestic and international legitimacy of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS)’.
The drafters of the document propose a parliamentary system of government which for once will give legitimacy and authority to political parties in deciding who becomes the president of the country. This is a departure from earlier practices including in 2012 when traditional elders played the all important role of deciding the country’s leadership.
Powerful premier
The proposal further seeks to water down the powers of the president by creating an executive Premier and a president with limited powers. This clause could be a likely point of contention among others given the history of a country which has seen the president and prime minister perennially at loggerheads over power struggles.
The country will be zoned into 7 constituencies based on the distribution of the current members of parliament. Each MP will therefore have to declare his/her geographic constituency out of either Puntland, Interim Jubba Administration, Interim South West Administration, Galmudug, Benadir, Somaliland or Hiiraan/Shabeelle).
Despite their relegation to the rear, elders will be instrumental in choosing the electorate; with each MP expected to be elected from 100 voters in the order of the 4.5 clan system. The 4.5 clan system, which has been disputed and seen as discriminatory to smaller clans works on the understanding that the four major clans in Somalia are billed on a factor of 1 and the remaining smaller clans are lumped together as half, thus the 4.5.
Voting locations
Based on this therefore there will be a total of 27,500 voters who will vote not for an individual MP but for the political party of choice, an MP representing a party. In total there will be 6 voting locations namely, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Kismaayo, Garowe, Dhuusamarreeb/Adaado and Beledweyn/Jowhar.
Existing state legislative bodies or state assemblies will endorse the electorate who will then be certified to vote. The assemblies as contemplated are, Puntland, Interim Jubba Administration, Interim South West Administration, Galmudug Administration and Benadir region. Benadir electorate will be endorsed by the Benadir City Council.
The proposal notes that MPs will be selected from party lists based on votes garnered by each party meaning that the party with the majority votes will command a high number of representation but based on the 4.5 clan formula.
Government formation
These MPs will therefore elect the president and the party that wins 50% plus 1 vote (or 13,751) automatically gets the right to form a government upon the request of the president elect. Failure to achieve this threshold results in a hung parliament hence two or more parties have to put heads together to form a coalition government.
The cabinet has also said this election formula will be exclusive for 2016 polls upon which the country will further deliberate on a more inclusive and democratic process. It says the proposed formula is a ‘selection-election’ process which seeks to bring together all actors including parliament, the National Independent Electoral Commission, regional administrations and clan elders.
