Egypt courts Somalia over GERD amid uncertainty on Mogadishu-Addis ties

By T. Roble

GOOBJOOG NEWS|CAIRO: Egypt has extended its charm offensive to Somalia for support of its campaign against Ethiopia over the filling of the controversial GERD dam in a move that could put Mogadishu at odds with Addis Ababa.

President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi said in a joint media conference with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud on Monday that he discussed the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the need for consultations between the key parties.

“I and Somalian president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stressed the necessity to reach a binding deal on GERD filling and operation without delay based on the UNSC presidential statement in September 2021 in order to preserve regional security and stability,” el-Sisi said.

He added that they affirmed the ‘necessity to abide by the principle of cooperation and prior consultation between riparian states to ensure no harm is caused to any of them in accordance with international law.’

Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a running dispute over the filling of the 74 million cubic metres dam which is also billed to generate 5,150 megawatts of electricity. Despite multiple protests by Cairo at the African Union and UN Security Council, Addis Ababa has gone ahead to refill the dam.

The GERD management announced in July 2021 that the second filling of the dam had reached ‘overtopping water level’.

Fight for riparian states’ support

Egypt has in recent years engaged in diplomatic, trade and military campaigns to win the support of riparian countries against Ethiopia’s move to utilise the Nile water for electricity generation and agriculture through the GERD.

In 2021 alone, Egypt inked military protocols, defence and intelligence agreements and military cooperation agreements with Kenya, DRC, Uganda and Burundi-all key riparian states which have been opposed to Cairo’s unilateral exploitation of the Nile waters.

By invoking the GERD issue during President Mohamud’s trip to Cairo, President el-Sisi was keen on roping Mogadishu on its side, especially in light of a potential shift of relations between the new administration at Villa Somalia and the PM Abiy Ahmed administration.

However, that move is being watched closely by Ethiopia which is a key ally in Somalia’s security front in the war against the militant group Al-Shabaab. President Mohamud was to visit Ethiopia before heading to Egypt but sources indicated that plan changed at the last minute under unclear circumstances. Other sources indicated PM Abiy Ahmed was not available for the meeting and instead agreed to a reschedule.

Sources have indicated the new Villa Somalia administration is adopting a west-looking foreign policy shift which emphasises closer ties and subsequent members of the East African Community in contrast to the immediate former administration which cast its eyes north for the Horn of African Alliance.

The Nile Water Agreements of 1929 granted Egypt and Sudan absolute exploitation of the Nile water amounting to 48 billion cubic metres and 4 billion cubic metres respectively. A revised 1959 bilateral agreement between the two countries raised that quota to 18.8 billion cubic metres for Sudan and 55.5 billion cubic metres for Egypt.

These agreements have, without success been challenged by the riparian states through several instruments.