Ethiopia–Eritrea Crisis Deepens as Accusations, Mobilisation Raise War Fears

GOOBJOOG NEWS|HoA: TThe Horn of African is once again staring at a possible flare up of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia following a ratcheting up of rhetoric as long-standing disputes between the two neighbours re-emerge.

The latest deterioration became public in early February 2026. On February 7, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Gedion Timothewos, sent a formal letter to his Eritrean counterpart, Osman Saleh, accusing Eritrean forces of crossing deeper into Ethiopian territory and committing what he described as acts of aggression.

“The incursion of Eritrean troops further into Ethiopian territory are not just provocations but acts of outright aggression,” Gedion wrote in the letter. He called for the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean forces and demanded an end to what Ethiopia alleges is Eritrean cooperation with armed groups operating inside the country.

Eritrea swiftly rejected the accusations. Information Minister Yemane Meskel described Ethiopia’s claims as baseless and politically motivated. “The patently false and fabricated accusations against Eritrea issued by Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister yesterday is astounding in its tone and substance, underlying motivation, and overarching objective,” he said in a public statement.

The war of words has been compounded by unusually blunt public admissions from Addis Ababa. In February 2026, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed acknowledged for the first time that Eritrean troops committed massacres in the historic city of Aksum during the Tigray war. The statement, reported by international media, marked a sharp departure from earlier Ethiopian government denials and further strained relations with Asmara.

Military Build-Up

Alongside the rhetoric, signs of military preparedness have intensified concern. International media have reported that Eritrea has declared a nationwide military mobilisation, while Ethiopia has deployed armoured units and thousands of new recruits toward its northern border. Neither side has announced an intention to launch an offensive, but analysts warn that sustained mobilisation significantly raises the risk of miscalculation.

At the core of the crisis lies a set of unresolved strategic drivers. Prime Minister Abiy has repeatedly framed Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea as an “existential matter,” with particular reference to the Eritrean port of Assab. While Addis Ababa has not formally claimed Eritrean territory, such rhetoric has alarmed Asmara, which views it as a direct threat to its sovereignty.

Chatham House has warned that the combination of unresolved post-Tigray tensions and Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions is particularly dangerous. “Preventive diplomacy is vital to stop another devastating war in the Horn of Africa,” the London-based think tank has said, cautioning that competition over Red Sea access and the absence of durable security arrangements could push the region toward renewed confrontation.

Another key factor is Eritrea’s exclusion from the 2022 Pretoria Agreement that ended the Tigray war. According to Chatham House, Eritrea’s absence from the talks, combined with its continued military presence in parts of Tigray, has deepened mistrust and left critical security questions unresolved between the two neighbours.

Withdrawal from IGAD

The diplomatic fallout has also spilled into regional institutions. In late 2025, Eritrea announced its withdrawal from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), accusing the bloc of bias and hostility toward its national interests. IGAD officials publicly regretted the decision and reaffirmed their readiness to engage Eritrea, highlighting the growing strain on regional conflict-management mechanisms.

Territorial disputes remain an enduring flashpoint. The town of Badme, awarded to Eritrea by a 2002 boundary ruling but never fully demarcated on the ground, continues to symbolise the fragility of the Ethiopia–Eritrea peace. Ethiopia now claims that recent Eritrean movements along its northeastern and northwestern borders represent a new and dangerous escalation.

For now, no direct clashes have been confirmed. But diplomats and analysts agree that the convergence of hostile rhetoric, military mobilisation, unresolved border disputes and strategic competition over the Red Sea has created a combustible environment — one in which a conflict neither side openly says it wants could nevertheless erupt, with serious consequences for the wider Horn of Africa.