Ethiopia’s Military Pressure at Home Threatens to Reshape Its Role in Somalia

GOOBJOOG NEWS | MOGADISHU: Ethiopia is planning to withdraw more than 3,000 troops from Somalia as renewed fighting at home puts pressure on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government to redirect military resources towards the escalating conflict, Bloomberg reported.

The troops could begin leaving Somalia in the coming days or weeks, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter who were not authorised to speak publicly.

The reported plan has not been publicly confirmed by either the Ethiopian or Somali governments. A Somali defence ministry official told journalists that Mogadishu had not received notification from Addis Ababa of any planned withdrawal.

It is also unclear whether the reported withdrawal would involve Ethiopian troops serving under the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), forces deployed under separate bilateral arrangements, or both.

The uncertainty is significant because Ethiopia maintains a substantial military presence in Somalia. Ethiopian forces have operated alongside Somali troops against Al-Shabaab under both the AU mission and bilateral security arrangements, particularly in areas of southern and central Somalia.

AUSSOM itself reported on September 7 that Ethiopian forces had completed a rotation in Sector 4, with newly deployed troops taking over from personnel who had completed a three-year tour in Beletweyne and Halgan. The mission said the incoming troops would continue working alongside Somali security forces on security and stabilisation operations.

The latest report therefore does not, by itself, establish that Ethiopia is ending its military presence in Somalia. Rather, it points to a possible new redeployment of forces as Addis Ababa faces growing security demands at home.

Ethiopia has been drawn into renewed fighting in the north, with federal forces and Tigrayan forces again engaged in clashes four years after the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement ended the previous Tigray war. Bloomberg has reported that fighting has spread across parts of northern Ethiopia, raising fears of a wider conflict.

The renewed conflict has also included fighting involving armed groups in other parts of the country, putting additional pressure on Ethiopia’s military resources.

The reported troop move would not be unprecedented. Ethiopia withdrew thousands of troops from Somalia during the 2020 Tigray war as fighting intensified at home, although it did not completely abandon its military role in Somalia.

The development comes only days after Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud held talks with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Addis Ababa during a one-day working visit. The two leaders discussed bilateral relations, security in the Horn of Africa and cooperation in trade and diplomacy.

Neither side announced a troop withdrawal following the meeting.

The reported plan also comes at a sensitive point in Somalia’s security transition. The country is seeking to expand the capacity of its own security forces while AUSSOM faces uncertainty over its long-term financing and international logistical support. The United States agreed in September to give the United Nations another year to wind down its support for AUSSOM, although Washington said it would no longer fund or support the UN Support Office in Somalia.

A substantial Ethiopian drawdown could affect Somalia’s security arrangements in areas where Ethiopian troops have operated for years, particularly if positions are not immediately taken over by Somali forces or other AUSSOM contingents.

For now, however, the scale, timing and composition of any Ethiopian withdrawal remain unclear. Neither Addis Ababa nor Mogadishu has publicly confirmed the reported plan, and it is not yet known whether the reported 3,000-plus troops would be withdrawn from AUSSOM, bilateral deployments or both.