Skip to content

Flash Flood Risks and Early Warning of El Niño in Somalia

Storyline:Climate & Environment
ByHani Gabahey

GOOBJOOG NEWS|SOMALIA: The Deyr rainy season (October–December) holds substantial importance for Somalia as it contributes to over 20%–30% of annual rainfall. The season is characterized by a shorter duration and fewer amounts of precipitation, but it’s beneficial to most water-dependent sectors. Given the multi-model rainfall forecast, there is an increasing probability of El Niño forming, which means excess rains and floods in Somalia during the short rains of Deyr. The Somali Flash Floods usually occur annually in the northern and southern parts of Somalia. The floods are a result of the Deyr rains, which is the monsoon-like rainfall that comes every October in the region.

This massive amount of water comes from the Ethiopian highlands, which contribute significantly to the flow of both the Juba and Shabelle rivers inside Somalia. And there is the expectation of El Nino coupled with a predicted positive that may result in an above-average rainfall for the upcoming 2023 Deyr season. There is more than 92% certainty thus a need for robust mitigation, preparedness, and early action.

On the downside, there could be increased risks of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, which may cause high loss of lives, property, population displacement, and destruction of infrastructure and crops in the field. However, flash floods in other (low-lying) areas and riverine villages will receive above-average normal rainfall that finally causes flash floods.

With the prediction of El Niño Floods in the country, the enhanced rains could also result in high groundwater level, low pasture, and crop failure. Up to 1.6 million people in Somalia could be affected.

According to SWALIM, the country’s riverine communities are particularly at risk of flooding and could face a potential loss of property and livestock, destruction of WASH facilities, and damage to crops, with around 1.5 million hectares of land at high risk of being inundated by flood waters along both the Juba and Shabelle rivers.

Why Somalia is a flood and hazard area?

There are two main reasons why Somalia is vulnerable to flooding:

  • Geography: Somalia is a flat, low-lying country with a coastline that is vulnerable to storm surges.
  • Climate: Somalia has a tropical climate with three rainy seasons. During the rainy seasons, heavy rainfall can cause rivers to overflow and lead to flooding.

“The first point is a natural point in the land where we live, which is a flat, low-lying land that is not mountainous, and the structure of the land make it vulnerable to flooding. And in Baladweyne, after 2020, areas have been made to prevent flooding,” Hani a water specialist said.

Since the floods happen in those districts, they mostly happen in the lower districts of Somalia, where most of them are affected by the floods.

While there is widespread concern in the Somali region of Ethiopia, where the flooding of the Shabelle River begins, if warnings are issued about floods in Somalia, people who live in flood-prone areas should stay away from the river.

“The people who live along the river are poor and needy. The only way these people face is to stay away from the river bank so that they can be safe from the flood.

Climate change experts have already said that Somalia is vulnerable to floods caused by rain or rivers due to severe deforestation. The United Nations has said that the floods in Somalia alone have affected more than 600,000 people.

The flood-prone areas in Somalia

The Somali government and its partners are also warning the people living along the Shabelle River to consider evacuating to higher grounds.

Several parts of Somalia received moderate rains earlier this month, with heavy rains reported in the Gedo and Bay regions, especially in Bardhere, Wanlawayn, Luuq, and Dolow regions, according to the latest report on the Hagaa rains in Somalia this year.

Once the Shabelle River floods, Jowhar town, the center of the Middle Shabelle region, will be affected.

Baladweyne, the capital of Hiran region, is one of the areas that is threatened by the flooding of the Shabelle River. Since Baladweyne is located in a low-lying area, it is prone to river flooding.

Most of the time when the city floods, it affects a lot of agricultural land and neighborhoods. At the beginning of 2020, there was a severe flood in Beledweyn city that caused loss of life and property.

Residents have been urged to stay away from flood-prone areas.

“Since it has rained a lot in Ethiopia, flooding will occur in the lowlands where the rivers passes such as Baladweyne, Buulo Burde, Jowhar among other areas.

Jowhar, which was a popular district for a lot of agricultural land whose production reaches the central and eastern regions of Somalia, is also prone to flooding. Farmers are advised to be careful and always follow the river water where they are going. In 2021 floods destroyed many farms in Jowhar and other areas around the river.

Afgooye in the Lower Shabelle region is also prone to flooding as the Shabelle river drains meanders on its way into the Indian Ocean.

Impacts of flash floods in Somalia

Flash floods can have a devastating impact on communities in Somalia. They can cause significant damage to property and infrastructure, including homes, schools, hospitals, and roads. Flash floods can also displace people from their homes and make it difficult for them to access essential services.In addition to the physical damage, flash floods can also have a significant impact on people’s livelihoods. They can destroy crops, livestock, and other sources of income. Flash floods can also lead to the spread of diseases, such as cholera and malaria.

The main flood-prone states in Somalia are:

  • Jubaland State
  • Puntland State
  • Galmudug State
  • HirshabelleState

Early warning systems

Early warning systems are essential to reduce the impact of flash floods in Somalia. These systems can provide early warning to communities about impending floods, giving them time to prepare and evacuate. The Somali government and its partners are working to improve early warning systems in the country. However, there are still significant challenges, such as a lack of resources and infrastructure.