OPINION: Iran’s Hormuz Threat Is a Global Alarm, Africa Should Pay Attention

Iran’s recent warning that it may shut down the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, has sparked global concern. While the focus remains largely on the implications for Western and Asian economies, African nations, particularly those in East Africa, have every reason to follow these developments closely.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel between Iran and the Gulf states, is the main maritime passage for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil. Every day, approximately 20 million barrels of crude and refined petroleum pass through this strategic waterway.

Any attempt to block or disrupt this flow would have an immediate impact on global energy prices, and by extension, on economic conditions across the African continent.

Iranian lawmakers have renewed threats to close the strait in response to rising tensions with Israel and continued Western sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear program. This is not the first time Tehran has issued such threats, but the current geopolitical climate, marked by Israel-Iran hostility and unresolved nuclear negotiations, lends this warning a more serious tone.

Why Africa Should Be Concerned

African economies remain heavily reliant on energy imports, and many are already grappling with the effects of global inflation, currency volatility, and post-COVID fiscal strain. A spike in oil prices triggered by conflict or closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly increase the cost of fuel, food, and transport across the continent.

East African countries such as Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania are especially vulnerable. Most petroleum products consumed in the region are imported, often via routes that begin in the Gulf.

Any disruption to supply chains or spike in global oil prices would push up transport costs, which in turn drive food and commodity prices higher, worsening inflation and squeezing household incomes.

Moreover, shipping insurance costs through the Red Sea could rise sharply if instability in the Gulf spills over. That would affect trade flowing through key African ports such as Mombasa and Djibouti, impacting both imports and exports.

Strategic Leverage or Dangerous Brinkmanship?

Tehran’s threats appear to be aimed at increasing its leverage in diplomatic negotiations. By highlighting its control over a vital chokepoint in the global energy system, Iran is signaling to the West that continued economic isolation will not come without consequences. But such brinkmanship carries risks, not just for Iran, but for the global economy.

The United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet is stationed in Bahrain and has a long-standing mandate to keep the Strait open. Any attempt by Iran to enforce a blockade could lead to military confrontation.

Past incidents in the Gulf, including the targeting of tankers and drone attacks, have shown how easily tension can escalate into open conflict.

For African policymakers and economists, this crisis underscores the vulnerability of energy security on the continent. Despite efforts to expand domestic energy production and diversify sources, the majority of African countries remain exposed to the price shocks of imported petroleum.

A Call for Strategic Preparedness

There are no quick fixes. However, this should be a wake-up call for African governments to deepen regional energy cooperation, invest in alternative energy infrastructure, and build strategic fuel reserves where possible.

Just as importantly, Africa’s growing diplomatic engagement with Gulf nations, from investment partnerships to military cooperation, means that developments in the Gulf now have a more direct bearing on African interests.

The Strait of Hormuz may lie thousands of kilometers from Nairobi, Addis Ababa, or Kampala, but what happens there reverberates across global supply chains, and through the economies of oil-importing nations across Africa.

As the situation evolves, Africa cannot afford to watch from the sidelines. Strategic foresight and regional coordination will be essential in insulating the continent from the worst effects of global volatility.

By Fauxile Kibet 

Fauxile Kibet is a journalist and political analyst based in Nairobi. The views expressed are his own.