Reprieve as FGS gets ‘own man’ in FMS and road to 2020

By T. Roble

From the onset of the Gulf Crisis in June 2017, President Mohamed Farmaajo’s administration’s relations with the Federal Member States which had hitherto not been clearly defined have been frosty and by August this year were at rock bottom before culminating into a divorce in September when the FMS leaders announced severance of ties.

The announcement by the FMS leaders under the CIC umbrella in October of intentions to form own army marked the apex of deteriorating relations which have been defined by mistrust, antagonism, and all-out war which saw political maverick and then South West president Sharif Sheikh Adan bow out and pull out of the presidential race. As a result of the disputes also, Galmudug state which has also been dogged by internal wrangles caved in resulting in a collection of entities whose legal definition is mind-numbing.

Effectively therefore, the FGS has gained ground in leveraging its influence on the FMS and bringing them to submission. With Adan, aka Sakin out, Galmudug in endless circus and Puntland’s Gaas fending off opposition in January polls, FGS seems to be in good shape and CIC petering out.

HirShabelle pulled out of the Council of Inter-State Cooperation (CIC) and sided with the government further weakening the entity which had given Mogadishu sleepless nights. President Farmaajo and PM Hassan Khaire have spared no resources and energy to wield control of the Federal Member States and effectively silence any dissent.

ROBOW DRAMA

The manner in which Mukhtar Robow, a former Al-Shabaab deputy was forcefully pulled out of the race the last minute when indications were clear he was heading for victory demonstrates the heights FGS would go to install its own man. After all, it had successfully ejected its arch nemesis-Adan from power with the intent of forcing through its choice. It is not lost on many an observer than Robow was going to give FGS a good run for its money and at worst become South West state president further obfuscating FGS’ vision.

The election of Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed aka Lafta Green therefore as President of South West state Wednesday marked a major milestone in the one and half year hostilities between the two levels of government. It was a big sigh for the FGS despite the cost on democracy, rule of law, lives and rights of the people of South West to a leader of own choice.

The Federal Government was now assured of its first own man in the FMS. Having come to office at a time the FMS leaders had established themselves as a force to reckon with, the current administration had found it difficult to penetrate. Lafta Green, the real spanner boy of FGS withdrew from the race for speaker late April and was appointed Energy Minister, a position he served for barely six months before being instructed to resign to contest for the South West seat.

In this election also, FGS managed to dispose of former intelligence boss Hussein Osman Hussein to effectively secure the position for currently deputy Fahad Yassin. Hussein, who had been touted as FGS favourite resigned in October despite clear indications he wasn’t going to secure any votes since his sub clan does not have any sway in South West politics. His dismal performance (3 votes) in the election yesterday spoke louder.

Effectively therefore, the FGS has gained ground in leveraging its influence on the FMS and bringing them to submission. With Adan, aka Sakin out, Galmudug in endless circus and Puntland’s Gaas fending off opposition in January polls, FGS seems to be in good shape and CIC petering out.

One thing which both Khaire and Farmaajo have learnt, and put into ‘productive’ use is not to ‘waste’ time in negotiations and talks when you can deploy state force and resources. Farmaajo poured cold water into the Senate mediation efforts while Khaire has indicated ‘we don’t negotiate’.

FEDERALISM AND 2020

FGS’ increasing control of FMS, however, presents an existential threat to Federalism in Somalia. Both Farmaajo and Khaire are centralists to the hilt. They have demonstrated an aversion for federalism which they believe deny them full exercise of power. Whereas the FMS leaders have become a thorn in the flesh for the FGS, their arguments and position bring to the fore what the framers of the Provisional Constitution contemplated.

That power is exercised in two levels and even though confrontational on the onset, help to embolden the federal system and ultimately bring forth the aspiration of Somalis who chose federalism against a unitary system whose fruits are public knowledge.

Further, for FGS, is the bigger and self-aggrandizing picture-the 2020 elections. South West was a pilot project which has so far produced impressive results. Perfecting this craft and bringing it to fruition is proof of the pudding.

That will, however, become clear as of mid-2019 when the separation of the chaff from the wheat begins. It will be time to know whether Khaire and Farmaajo will agree on a joint candidature or each pursues own political path whose consequences would be anyone’s guess.