Sudan crisis threat to already fragile Horn of Africa, experts warn
GOOBJOOG NEWS | KHARTOUM: Regional leaders and experts have expressed concern over the ongoing fighting in Sudan – which has now entered its 5th day despite calls for a ceasefire from regional and international parties.
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) clashed with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Saturday in a battle for control of the country’s capital and key installations which has so far caused deaths of more than 200 civilians and over 2000 injured according to the United Nations Special representative to Sudan.
The Sudanese army is led by the country’s de facto head of state General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the RSF is commandeered by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemedti.
Regional experts and diplomats have raised concerns that the ongoing clashes could pose more risk to the Horn of Africa region which already grappling with adverse effects of conflict and drought.
Tens of thousands of civilians across the region have been killed and many more are in dire need of aid due to conflicts in Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan and effects of climate change caused by long dry spells which has worsened the humanitarian situation in the region.
United Nations chief Antonio Guteres and the United States secretary of State Anthony Blinken joined hands in calling for an immediate de-escalation of the conflict, both arguing that a full blown civil war in Sudan could create a new refugee crisis and open avenues for external forces to meddle in the conflict.
“Were Sudan to descend into civil war then the entire Horn of Africa region will be affected,” Matt Bryden, a strategic adviser at Sahan Research, a think tank focusing on politics and security in the Horn of Africa, told journalists on Tuesday.
Cessation of hostilities
On Sunday, leaders from the regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) held a virtual meeting where they called for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
The IGAD leaders said during the meeting that regional leaders including; Kenya’s William Ruto, Suth Sudan’s Salva Kiir and Djibouti’s Ismail Omar Guelleh would visit Khartoum to reconcile the warring groups soon.
But the ongoing clashes has made the planned trip by the leaders impossible and this has created fears that foreign powers could seize the opportunity and attempt to intervene in an attempt to exert dominance in the region – as it was witnessed in Libya and the Central African Republic (CAR).
Russia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have intervened in previous conflicts in Africa through supply of weapons and deployment of mercenaries such as the Russian Wagner Group.
Experts therefore warn that the Sudan conflict could easily turn the Horn of Africa region into a playground for global powers, but African Union leaders have earned against any form of external interference saying this could further complicate the situation.
Refugee Crisis
Recent data shows that Ethiopia has more than two million internally displaced persons which has been caused by a conflict between the country’s army and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) that governed the Tigray region
Ethiopia also hosts nearly a million refugees from Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea. Meanwhile, Chad is home to 370,000 Sudanese refugees.
According to Ovigwe Eguegu, a policy analyst at Development Reimagined, an Africa-focused international development consultancy, if foreign states do not mediate soon in the crisis, the region will see another protracted conflict.
“Without immediate mediation, we may see a protracted conflict, which will cause a refugee crisis. The risk of a refugee crisis is real considering the conflict dynamics in Sudan,” Eguegu said during an interview with journalists.
- By Fauxile Kibet