The AU Under New Leadership: Challenges and Aspirations

By Hussein Abshir

The election of Mahmoud Ali Youssouf as Chairperson of the African Union Commission in February 2025 marks a pivotal moment for Africa. A seasoned diplomat with 25 years as Djibouti’s Foreign Minister, Youssouf assumes leadership at a critical juncture. The continent faces persistent security crises, economic vulnerabilities, governance deficits, and the need to assert a unified voice in a multipolar world. His election signals a potential recalibration of the AU’s priorities and institutional direction.

Historical Context: From OAU to AU

The African Union (AU), established in 2002, replaced the Organization of African Unity (OAU), which prioritized non-interference in member states’ affairs. While the OAU championed decolonization and anti-apartheid efforts, its reluctance to address internal governance issues limited its effectiveness. The AU, by contrast, adopted a more proactive stance, introducing mechanisms like the Peace and Security Council (PSC) and the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to address conflicts and promote democratic governance.

The AU’s Constitutive Act granted it authority to intervene in member states during war crimes, genocide, or crimes against humanity—a significant departure from the OAU’s passive approach. Despite these advancements, the AU has struggled with internal divisions, reliance on foreign funding, and resistance to governance reforms, hindering its ability to enforce electoral integrity and human rights protections.

Challenges Under Youssouf’s Leadership

Youssouf inherits a complex landscape of challenges that will test his diplomatic and leadership skills.

Security Crises

1. Eastern DRC Conflict: The conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is one of the most intractable security challenges facing the AU. The resurgence of the M23 rebel group, allegedly supported by Rwanda, has exacerbated tensions. Rwanda’s involvement is driven by security concerns over Hutu militias operating in the DRC and economic interests in the region’s vast mineral resources, including cobalt and coltan. This has created a complex web of conflicting interests, with the DRC accusing Rwanda of backing rebels to exploit its resources, while Rwanda denies these allegations and cites security threats.

The conflict is further influenced by external factors, including global demand for minerals essential to technology and green energy. Multinational corporations and foreign governments often indirectly fuel the violence by financing armed groups to secure access to these resources.

To address this crisis, Youssouf will need to work closely with regional bodies like the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). SADC has already deployed forces in the DRC, reflecting its commitment to stabilizing the region. However, these efforts require stronger coordination and a unified approach to mediation, disarmament, and resource governance. Youssouf’s leadership will be critical in fostering collaboration between these regional organizations and ensuring a cohesive strategy to address the root causes of the conflict.

2. Military Coups in West Africa: The Sahel region has seen a surge in military takeovers, with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger exiting the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and announcing their own integration alliance. This move reflects growing dissatisfaction with ECOWAS’s perceived inability to address the region’s instability, particularly the rise of terrorist groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). These groups have exploited weak governance, poverty, and ethnic tensions to expand their influence, creating a security vacuum that military regimes have used to justify their takeovers.
3. Sudan Crisis: The conflict between the Sudanese National Army (SNA) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to devastate Sudan, with widespread atrocities, including mass displacement, extrajudicial killings, and severe restrictions on humanitarian aid. The RSF recently signed a deal in Nairobi to establish a parallel government, further complicating the political landscape. Meanwhile, the SNA has been capturing remaining RSF strongholds, intensifying the violence. Sudan has threatened diplomatic fallout with Kenya over its perceived dalliance with the RSF, accusing Nairobi of undermining efforts to restore stability. This escalating tension threatens to destabilize the broader East African region.

Youssouf faces the delicate task of re-engaging these nations while addressing the underlying causes of their instability. He must balance the AU’s commitment to constitutional order with pragmatic diplomacy to prevent further fragmentation of regional integration efforts. This will require:

• Mediation and Dialogue: Facilitating talks between ECOWAS and the military-led states to rebuild trust and explore pathways for reintegration.
• Counterterrorism Cooperation: Strengthening regional counterterrorism initiatives, including intelligence sharing and joint military operations, to address the security threats driving instability.
• Governance Reforms: Encouraging transitional governments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to adopt clear timelines for restoring democratic rule, while addressing the governance grievances that fueled the coups.

Youssouf must prioritize a coordinated AU response to the crisis, focusing on:

• Mediation Efforts: Facilitating dialogue between the SNA and RSF to achieve a ceasefire and establish a transitional government.
• Humanitarian Support: Ensuring unimpeded access to humanitarian aid for affected populations.
• Regional Diplomacy: Mediating between the DRC and Rwanda to de-escalate tensions and foster regional cooperation in resolving the conflict.

Institutional Financing: Mobilizing Resources for Peace Efforts

A critical challenge for the AU is securing predictable and sustainable funding for its peacekeeping and stabilization missions. For example, the African Union Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has played a vital role in combating Al-Shabaab and stabilizing the region. However, its effectiveness has been hampered by inconsistent funding, which undermines operational planning and long-term impact.

Youssouf must prioritize mobilizing resources to support peace efforts across the continent. This will require:

• Strengthening the AU Peace Fund: Enhancing contributions from member states and ensuring transparent, efficient utilization of funds to support peacekeeping missions.
• Engaging with the UN Security Council: Collaborating with the UN to secure funding for AU-led peacekeeping missions under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter, which recognizes regional organizations’ roles in maintaining peace and security. Youssouf can advocate for UN-assessed contributions to support AU missions, ensuring predictable and sustainable financing.
• Leveraging Partnerships: Working with international partners, including the European Union and the United States, to secure additional funding and technical support for AU peacekeeping efforts.

Economic Vulnerabilities

Africa’s economic trajectory is hampered by structural weaknesses, including reliance on primary commodity exports, inadequate infrastructure, and development disparities. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a pathway to economic integration, but its implementation faces obstacles such as insufficient infrastructure and member states prioritizing national interests over continental goals.

Institutional Challenges

The AU’s effectiveness is constrained by bureaucratic inefficiencies, overlapping mandates, and financial dependency on external donors. Achieving financial self-sufficiency and streamlining operations are critical to enhancing the AU’s autonomy and policy implementation. Strengthening the AU’s institutional capacity across priority domains will be essential for effective policy implementation. The African Union must “restructure its institutions to address key areas such as trade, investment, and bridge development disparities across the continent. The African Union Commission must assume the responsibility of reinforcing these institutions to ensure they effectively drive the continent’s transformation and the realization of Agenda 2063.

Youssouf’s Vision and Priorities

Youssouf’s campaign emphasized unity, economic transformation, and conflict resolution. Key elements of his agenda include:

• Strengthening the AU Standby Force: Reducing reliance on external powers for security and enabling African nations to address their own conflicts.
• Advancing the AfCFTA: Promoting intra-African trade and infrastructure development to drive economic growth.
• Enhancing Financial Independence: Mobilizing domestic resources to reduce dependency on foreign funding.
• Streamlining AU Operations: Improving coordination, transparency, and accountability within the organization.

The AU in Global Governance

The AU has sought to elevate Africa’s role in global decision-making, advocating for reforms in international institutions and fostering partnerships with emerging global powers. However, internal divisions and financial constraints have limited its influence. Youssouf’s leadership will need to balance internal integration with external representation, ensuring Africa’s voice is heard in shaping global policies.

Navigating the Return of Donald Trump to the White House

The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025 introduces new uncertainties for Africa. Trump’s “America First” policies, which prioritize U.S. interests over multilateral cooperation, could lead to reduced development aid, stricter immigration policies, and a transactional approach to diplomacy. For Africa, this could mean:

• Reduced Development Assistance: Potential cuts to U.S. aid programs, such as PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) and the Millennium Challenge Corporation, which have been critical for health and infrastructure development.
• Trade Implications: A focus on bilateral trade deals that may disadvantage African economies, particularly if the U.S. withdraws support for initiatives like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
• Geopolitical Shifts: A potential realignment of U.S. alliances, with increased focus on countering China’s influence in Africa, which could pressure African nations to choose sides in a new Cold War-like dynamic.

Youssouf will need to navigate these challenges by:

• Balancing Relations with the U.S. and EU: Strengthening ties with the European Union, which remains a key partner in development and security, while engaging pragmatically with the U.S. to safeguard African interests.
• Promoting African Agency: Asserting Africa’s role as an equal partner in global affairs, rather than a passive recipient of foreign policies. This includes advocating for reforms in international institutions to reflect Africa’s growing influence.

Guarding Against Foreign Exploitation

Africa’s vast mineral resources and strategic location have made it a focal point for geopolitical competition. Countries like China, Russia, and the U.S. are vying for access to critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements, which are essential for technology and green energy. Youssouf must guard against exploitative practices by:

• Strengthening Resource Governance: Promoting transparent and sustainable management of natural resources to ensure that African nations benefit from their wealth.
• Leveraging the AfCFTA: Using the African Continental Free Trade Area to enhance intra-African trade and reduce dependency on external markets.
• Fostering Strategic Partnerships: Engaging with international partners on mutually beneficial terms, ensuring that African interests are prioritized in trade and investment deals.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Africa

Youssouf’s leadership comes at a time of both challenges and opportunities. Africa’s youthful population, vast natural resources, and cultural diversity offer immense potential for growth and innovation. However, realizing this potential requires addressing security crises, economic vulnerabilities, and governance deficits.

The success of Youssouf’s tenure will depend on his ability to build consensus among member states, mobilize resources, and translate ambitious visions into tangible outcomes. By strengthening the AU’s institutional capacity and fostering continental unity, Youssouf can advance the vision of an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Africa as outlined in Agenda 2063.