UN Warns El Niño Floods Could Affect 3.4 Million People in Somalia

GOOBJOOG NEWS | MOGADISHU: Up to 3.4 million people in Somalia could be affected by flooding during the October-December rainy season, the United Nations has warned, as the country prepares for potentially severe El Niño-related rains.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said heavy rainfall could affect 16 of Somalia’s 18 regions, with Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle and Lower Juba among areas facing particular flood risks.

The agency warned that flooding could reach levels comparable to, or worse than, major flood events recorded in 2023 and 1997, while many communities remain vulnerable after prolonged drought.

The combination of flooding, displacement and limited sanitation services could also increase the risk of waterborne diseases, the UN said.

The warning comes as Somalia’s already strained health system faces funding pressures. OCHA said at least 380 health facilities have closed or reduced operations because of funding shortages, while another 115 mobile health facilities have also shut, limiting access to healthcare in remote and hard-to-reach areas.

The government, UN agencies and humanitarian partners have begun preparations, including risk assessments, contingency planning, early-warning measures, public awareness campaigns and the pre-positioning of emergency supplies in high-risk areas.

The UN said lessons from the 2023 climate shocks, when floods and drought displaced nearly 2.3 million people and affected millions more, were informing the current preparations.

But funding remains a major constraint.

Somalia’s 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, which requires about $852 million, was only 31% funded as of the latest assessment, leaving a gap of roughly $590 million.

OCHA said the window to prepare for the rainy season was narrowing and urged donors and other partners to accelerate funding for early action and flood preparedness.

The warning follows regional forecasts from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) pointing to an increased risk of heavy rainfall and flooding during the October-December season.

The expected rains come against a difficult humanitarian backdrop for Somalia, with communities still recovering from drought, displacement and food insecurity. Early action, the UN said, will be critical to reducing the impact of flooding before the heaviest rains arrive.