Why the Telegraph Is Wrong: Mogadishu Is Not on the Brink of Falling to Al-Shabaab

GOOBJOOG NEWS|MOGADISHU: The Telegraph’s recent article, “Somalia gripped by fears of militant Islamic uprising,” paints Mogadishu as a city standing on the precipice of an Al-Shabaab takeover, likening the situation to Kabul before the Taliban swept in. The comparison makes for a dramatic headline. But as anyone who lives and works in Mogadishu will tell you, it is divorced from reality. The capital is secure, economically vibrant, and under a level of protection that makes the notion of an imminent insurgent capture more fantasy than forecast.

Somalia in 2025 is far from the Mogadishu of the early 2010s, let alone Kabul in its final days before the Taliban takeover in 2021. It is a country that has steadily built up its national army, retaken territory, attracted investment, and is preparing to hold its first one-person, one-vote election in 54 years. Voter registration is currently underway in several parts of the country highlighting both the confidence and desire for a more progressive pathway.

Yes, Al-Shabaab remains a threat but to suggest they are on the cusp of reclaiming Mogadishu is to ignore the military, political, and social realities on the ground. General Dahir Adan Indhaqarshe, who twice commanded the Somali National Army (SNA), is quick to dismantle the idea that Mogadishu is vulnerable.

“When I was in command between 2013 and 2015, we had only about 16,000 soldiers. Today, the SNA has over 40,000 soldiers, with aerial support that didn’t exist in my time,” he explains. “Al-Shabaab typically deploys 150 to 200 fighters in an operation. They cannot match the manpower and capabilities we now have. If they had that kind of power, they would have retaken Mogadishu long ago.”

FORMIDABLE DEFENCES

No one denies that Somalia faces a complex security landscape. In parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Hiiraan, Al-Shabaab has made recent advances. In some cases, government forces have tactically withdrawn from outlying areas. But as General Indharqarshe, put it, “In the theatre of war, sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. Even those retaken by Al-Shabaab, the SNA regains because they cannot hold them.” These are not permanent conquests. They are flashes in an ongoing conflict and far from the sustained campaign required to breach the capital’s defenses.

Those defenses are formidable. Mogadishu is shielded not just by manpower but by geography. To the east lies the Indian Ocean, and Al-Shabaab has no maritime capability. To the west, the Shabelle River forms a natural barrier, crossed by just five bridges — all of them guarded round-the-clock by SNA units and African Union forces. “They have tried several times to no avail,” says Indharqarshe. “They can only send individuals to carry out lone-ranger explosions, but even that has been significantly curtailed thanks to intelligence work and cooperation from the public.”

TALIBAN CONTRAST

The contrast with Afghanistan is one of the Telegraph’s most glaring missteps. Somalia’s military is not a foreign-built scaffolding propped up by external powers; it is composed of volunteers committed to defending their homeland. “The Afghan army was patched together by foreign countries,” Indharqarshe notes. “Somali soldiers have the morale. The SNA is self-made.” The result is a force of over 40,000 — more than four times its size when he last commanded it — backed by aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities that did not exist a decade ago. Al-Shabaab, by comparison, fields an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 fighters. “You need over 30,000 fighters to take Mogadishu,” he says. “They don’t have that.”

“Somalis are fed up with Al-Shabaab,” Indharqarshe says. “They claim to fight for Islam, but they are just a money-laundering scheme.”

Major General Mohamed Barise, commander of the SNA’s Joint Command Centre, is even blunter. “After 14 years, if one says Al-Shabaab is about to take Mogadishu, that’s utter falsehood,” he says. “There’s no window for any Al-Shabaab return to Mogadishu. People have heavily invested here and no one will allow their city to be a dumpsite of artilleries and bullets.” Barise says when Al-Shabaab was driven out of Mogadishu in a combined effort of African Union troops and SNA, the then Transitional Federal Government was weak and frail. If Al-Shabaab was to return, then they would at that time and not now when there’s a strong permanent central government and equally formidable regional units.

Barise adds that the Taliban of Afghanistan was ten times bigger and far better organized than al-Shabaab, with a clearly defined political and military project. “Al-Shabaab are gangsters using religion as a cover. Their goal is to make Somalia a haven for international terrorist networks, not to serve the Somali people,” he says.

VIBRANT ECONOMY

Mogadishu is a living, growing urban economy whose residents, some of them returnees from the diaspora — have a direct stake in keeping the peace. The skyline is changing rapidly. New apartment blocks rise where bullet-scarred shells once stood. Hotels and restaurants cater to a growing middle class and to business travellers from across East Africa. The real estate sector has exploded, fuelled by both local capital and investment from countries like Turkey, Kenya, and the Gulf states. The city is serviced by at least five international airlines connecting the once forlorn city to capitals across the world.

Nightlife, once unthinkable, has returned. Cafés and clubs stay open late into the evening. Streets that were once deserted after sunset now hum with traffic. Young people, like a café owner in Hodan district who asked not to be named, speak of business “still buzzing at midnight” and a customer base that now includes young professionals and students meeting for coffee at hours their parents’ generation would have considered unsafe.

These changes are not cosmetic. They rest on tangible improvements in security and on deliberate government measures to safeguard the capital. Specially trained units guard the main bridge approaches from Lower Shabelle, at Bariire and Sabiid, to prevent hit-and-run attacks. Rapid reaction forces are deployed to counter shelling and small-scale raids. Intelligence agencies work closely with local communities to detect threats before they materialise. The crackdown on Al-Shabaab’s revenue networks — extortion rackets, smuggling routes, and illicit trade — has hit the group’s finances hard, reducing its ability to bribe, recruit, or equip fighters for urban operations.

ALLIED FORCES POWER

The Telegraph article does acknowledge that large-scale bombings in the capital have largely stopped, but it glosses over why: sustained, coordinated effort by Somali forces, African Union troops, and international partners such as the U.S., Turkey, and the UAE. The claim that Mogadishu is “isolated” ignores the steady rhythm of joint operations, from aerial strikes to coordinated offensives, that have kept Al-Shabaab from consolidating gains. “We are on course to taking control of Awdhigle in Lower Shabelle,” Barise says, noting that even where the army has made tactical withdrawals, the group has been unable to establish governance, schools, hospitals, or even functioning local administrations. The SNA and the Uganda Defence Forces (UPDF) this past week recaptured the strategic Bariire locality, also located in the Lower Shabelle region.

The comparison with Kabul is not just inaccurate, both generals insist — it’s dangerous. It amplifies Al-Shabaab’s propaganda, lending weight to their narrative of inevitability. “Their power is overestimated,” Indharqarshe says. “If they had the power, they would have retaken Mogadishu. They survive on fear and lies.” The group’s actual record in the areas it temporarily controls is one of coercion and exploitation: seizing livestock, extorting farmers, recruiting children as young as 12, and forcing girls into marriages that are, in reality, acts of sexual violence.

“Al-Shabaab are gangsters using religion as a cover. Their goal is to make Somalia a haven for international terrorist networks, not to serve the Somali people.”

Barise also notes that the Taliban of Afghanistan was ten times bigger and far better organized than Al-Shabaab, with a clearly defined political and military project. “Al-Shabaab are gangsters using religion as a cover. Their goal is to make Somalia a haven for international terrorist networks, not to serve the Somali people,” he says.

There is another important difference from Afghanistan that rarely makes it into foreign coverage: Somalia’s insurgency is unpopular not just among city dwellers but across much of the rural population. “Somalis are fed up with Al-Shabaab,” Indharqarshe says. “They claim to fight for Islam, but they are just a money-laundering scheme.” Unlike the Taliban, whose ideological appeal resonated with some rural Afghan communities, Al-Shabaab’s blend of brutality and opportunism has left it without a durable political base.

TOUGH TRAJECTORY BUT RESILIENT

None of this is to deny that Somalia faces serious challenges. Conflict is ongoing. Gains in some areas are matched by setbacks in others. But the frontline is not the capital’s perimeter, and the pulse of Mogadishu is not faint. The city’s resilience — military, economic, and social — rests on factors the Telegraph’s narrative either misses or chooses not to weigh. It is possible, even necessary, to report on Somalia’s security challenges without slipping into the easy shorthand of “another Afghanistan.” That shorthand is lazy, inaccurate, and ultimately counterproductive, undermining international confidence and emboldening the very groups it claims to warn against.

Mogadishu today is not a city bracing for collapse. It is a city under guard, yes — but also a city building, trading, and dreaming. Its residents are not preparing for an evacuation; they are opening shops, investing in property, meeting friends in newly built cafés, and sending their children to schools that remain open and functioning. Its soldiers are not debating whether to fight; they are volunteering to serve, often in the neighbourhoods where they grew up. And its skyline — changing almost by the month — is the clearest rebuttal to the idea that Mogadishu is one rebel advance away from falling.

The truth is more complicated and more hopeful than the Telegraph allows: Somalia’s capital is not a heartbeat away from Al-Shabaab control. It is the beating heart of a country still at war, but also still moving forward.