Somalia Rejects Crisis Group Report Claiming Al-Shabaab Regained Momentum

GOOBJOOG NEWS | MOGADISHU: Somalia has pushed back against a new report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) that warns Al-Shabaab regained significant military momentum in 2025, arguing the assessment overlooks progress made by the government in rebuilding state institutions and combating the insurgency.

The report, said the militant group had reversed many of the territorial and military gains achieved by Somali forces during offensives launched in 2022 and 2023. It also cited political divisions and declining international support as factors that have strengthened the group’s position and complicated efforts to defeat the insurgency.

Responding to the report, Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Balcad, said the assessment presented an incomplete and unfair picture of the country’s security and governance efforts.

“It has become commonplace for some policy circles to portray Somalia as a country trapped in perpetual failure, incapable of taking responsibility for its own security, rebuilding its institutions or governing effectively,” Balcad wrote on X.

“That narrative is not only incomplete; it is fundamentally unfair.”

The minister said the Federal Government has spent the past four years pursuing three parallel priorities: intensifying military operations against Al-Shabaab, rebuilding the country’s national security institutions and advancing constitutional reforms aimed at strengthening state-building.

He acknowledged that Somalia continues to face enormous challenges, including conducting security operations while resources and international financial support become increasingly constrained.

“These are not easy tasks for a country emerging from decades of conflict,” he said, adding that the government remains committed to restoring security and strengthening public institutions.

The exchange comes as Somalia continues military operations against Al-Shabaab with support from international partners. Government forces, alongside local clan militias, have carried out offensives in central and southern Somalia, while the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) continues to assist Somali security forces during the country’s gradual security transition.

However, recent months have seen Al-Shabaab launch renewed attacks in parts of Hirshabelle and South West states, underscoring the group’s continued ability to mount coordinated operations despite sustained military pressure.

The debate also comes amid growing uncertainty over international support for Somalia’s security sector. This week, the African Union convened emergency consultations after the United States announced it would end support for the UN logistics mechanism backing AUSSOM after December 2026, raising fresh concerns over the future financing of the mission.

The International Crisis Group has argued that military pressure alone will not be sufficient to defeat Al-Shabaab, urging Somali leaders to complement security operations with political dialogue, governance reforms and efforts to address local grievances. The Somali government, however, maintains that sustained military operations, institutional reforms and stronger state authority remain essential to eliminating the group’s threat.