‘The Economist’ Warns Abiy Ahmed’s Power Ambitions Could Destabilize Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa

GOOBJOOG NEWS|ADDIS ABABA: The British magazine, The Economist has warned that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s growing concentration of power and long-term political ambitions risk destabilizing Ethiopia and could plunge the Horn of Africa into renewed conflict.

In an analysis published ahead of Ethiopia’s June 1 election, the magazine argues that while Abiy has overseen major economic and infrastructure projects, including the construction of Africa’s largest dam and plans for the continent’s biggest airport, his increasingly centralized rule poses serious risks to the country’s unity and democratic future.

The publication describes Abiy as a leader determined to transform Ethiopia into a wealthy and influential regional power while positioning himself at the center of that vision. Since coming to power in 2018, he has opened parts of the economy, reshaped large sections of Addis Ababa, and pursued ambitious development projects that have helped boost economic growth.

However, The Economist argues that Abiy has steadily consolidated authority to a degree not seen since the reign of Emperor Haile Selassie, Ethiopia’s last monarch. The magazine says the prime minister has moved away from his earlier promises of democratic reform, leaving voters with little meaningful political choice.

According to the publication, there is growing speculation that a post-election national dialogue could recommend constitutional changes that would replace the current parliamentary system with a directly elected presidency. Such a move could allow Abiy to remain in power for decades beyond his current term.

Unresolved Internal Conflicts

The magazine warns that Ethiopia’s internal challenges remain far from resolved despite recent economic gains.

Particular concern is focused on tensions in the Tigray region, where a devastating civil war between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters from 2020 to 2022 resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. The conflict ended with a peace agreement, but The Economist says signs are emerging that instability could return if underlying grievances are not addressed.

The publication notes that Ethiopia’s size, ethnic diversity, and history of regional tensions make excessive centralization of power especially risky, arguing that the country has faced multiple rebellions since Abiy took office, many of which remain unresolved.

Rising Regional Tensions

Beyond Ethiopia’s borders, The Economist highlights worsening relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea as another major source of concern.

The magazine says Prime Minister Abiy believes Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is supporting some of his domestic rivals, including elements linked to Tigray. At the same time, Abiy’s increasingly public calls for Ethiopia to secure direct access to the Red Sea have heightened fears in Eritrea, where many view such ambitions as a potential threat to their country’s sovereignty.

According to the publication, the combination of domestic instability and regional tensions raises the possibility of a broader conflict that could affect the entire Horn of Africa.

Call for International Pressure

The magazine also urges the United States and the European Union to use their economic influence to encourage a more moderate course.

While Western governments have recently sought to rebuild ties with Addis Ababa following the Tigray conflict, The Economist argues that trade opportunities, investment, and diplomatic engagement should be used as leverage to discourage policies that could further destabilize Ethiopia and the region.

The publication concludes with a warning drawn from Ethiopia’s own history: unchecked leaders who accumulate excessive power often create the conditions for their eventual downfall, with consequences that extend far beyond the country’s borders.