What You Need To Know About The Opposition’s New Election Proposal

GOOBJOOG NEWS|MOGADISHU: Somalia’s opposition-aligned Future Council has unveiled a new electoral roadmap that it says could break the country’s political deadlock over the next federal elections.

The proposal was presented following a meeting attended by leaders from Puntland, Jubbaland and the opposition’s Salvation Forum, both of which form the Future Council, alongside representatives of the international community, including the United Nations, European Union, United States and United Kingdom.

The plan offers an alternative to the Federal Government’s push for a one-person-one-vote election based on political parties and seeks to create what it calls an “Expanded Indirect Election” model.

Here are the key points:

1. A Hybrid Election Model

The proposal combines direct voting by citizens with Somalia’s traditional 4.5 clan power-sharing system.

2. Citizens Would Vote Directly

Unlike previous elections that relied on clan delegates, registered voters would directly elect members of parliament in constituency-based electoral areas known as SEEJO.

3. The 4.5 Formula Remains

The proposal retains the 4.5 power-sharing arrangement, with parliamentary seats continuing to be allocated according to clan representation.

4. Political Parties Would Be Excluded

The opposition bloc proposes abandoning participation by political associations and parties registered under the current electoral framework championed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration.

5. Joint Election Management

A national electoral commission comprising representatives from both the Federal Government and Federal Member States would oversee the electoral process.

6. Paper Ballots And Biometric Registration

Voting would be conducted using paper ballots and ballot boxes, while biometric registration would be used to prevent multiple registrations and electoral fraud.

7. Four Voting Centres Per State

Each Federal Member State would host elections in four designated districts, primarily in regional capitals.

8. A 42-Day Election Timeline

The proposed process includes voter registration, candidate verification, campaigning, voting and dispute resolution within 42 days.

9. Supreme Court As Final Arbiter

The Supreme Court would have final authority over electoral disputes and would be required to issue rulings within 72 hours.

10. Hirshabelle And Galmudug Elections First

The opposition bloc proposes using the model to conduct delayed elections in Hirshabelle and Galmudug within three months before implementing it at the federal level within six months.

How Does It Differ From Previous Elections?

The proposal seeks to bridge the gap between Somalia’s previous indirect election models and the government’s push for universal suffrage.

2016-2017 Elections

Members of parliament were elected by about 14,000 clan-selected delegates across the country. Ordinary citizens did not vote directly.

2021-2022 Elections

The indirect model was expanded, with approximately 101 delegates electing each parliamentary seat. The process was managed through agreements between the Federal Government and Federal Member States.

The New Proposal

The new framework would significantly expand participation by allowing ordinary registered citizens to vote directly within constituency-based electoral areas while maintaining the 4.5 clan-sharing formula and avoiding a fully party-based election.

Why It Matters

If adopted, the proposal would represent the largest expansion of voter participation in Somalia’s electoral process since the collapse of the central government in 1991.

However, significant political hurdles remain. The Federal Government has consistently advocated for a party-based one-person-one-vote system, while opposition leaders argue that the country lacks the political consensus, constitutional framework and security conditions necessary for such a transition.

The proposal therefore sets the stage for what is likely to be an intense political debate over the future of Somalia’s democratic transition, with consensus among key stakeholders expected to determine whether the plan gains traction.